Should go insane tomorrow with the tariffs being struck down

5/28/2025 10:01:40 PM

Implied open is up about 1%. Not insane yet, but we'll see. No one believes anything is stable under this admin. It was a unanimous ruling by a 3-judge panel with 2 Republican appointees and 1 Democratic appointee (with one of the Republican appointees by Trump), but that means little when the current Supreme Court gets involved.

5/29/2025 7:48:13 AM

TACO trade is already priced in

5/29/2025 11:48:51 PM

Y'all in on that OPEN

7/21/2025 12:37:34 PM

Well, it's in VTI, so yes.

7/21/2025 4:20:58 PM

[Edited on July 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM. Reason : Oops ]

7/23/2025 6:30:51 AM

Big gains/new s&p record tomorrow due to EU trade deal?

7/27/2025 11:56:35 PM

New highs seem likely, but somewhat depends on how much was already priced in late last week.

7/28/2025 1:32:13 AM

I guess it was already priced in.

7/28/2025 3:08:41 PM

The shock value is gone, the market is smart to know about that TACO

7/28/2025 5:31:13 PM

y'all gonna get on that $FIG tomorrow?

7/30/2025 9:56:03 PM

I should have sold all my Novo stock when trump got elected. damn i was up soooo much middle of last year.

thanks to META for covering some of those of that drop. still have my IPO Meta, well it dropped form 60 IP to 38, i wish i'd but 10 grand, i didn't have, back then.

7/31/2025 9:56:02 AM

^^

7/31/2025 10:08:42 AM

^^I’ve actually doubled down on NVO since the election, with the expectation it might take until post-Trump for it to really take off. I think it’s such a deal and bought so much, I had to pump the brakes and hedge by buying some LLY. NVO has a shit ton of new GLP-1 drugs in its pipeline. If one shows slightly better results in testing than LLY’s, it’ll skyrocket again.

I deleted my post above because I thought it was assuming way too much for this thread. But it’s amazing how a few days of bad economic news make those assumptions not seem so far out in left field anymore.

Now that several car companies have posted pretty massive losses and other indicators suggest recession is likely, how likely do people think another auto bailout is in the Trump admin? Trump loves the idea of domestic heavy manufacturing, the Ag bailouts to help farmers he’s fucked with his tariffs seem to suggest he’s probably open to the idea, and now the GOP is posting “Make American cars great again” propaganda on its social media. Second question is if the bailouts never come, which domestic auto company would you rather be holding in ~4 years?

8/2/2025 2:41:48 PM

I bought a Ford car because I appreciated that they never took the bailout.

It's been a good car so far.

8/2/2025 9:24:42 PM

Anyone looked at STRC for yield/

I haven't really sold a ton of stocks (a few here and there), but I haven't put more money into them either. I bought a bunch of REITs, but I'm about as deep as I want to go there, too.

Valuations of stocks seem crazy to me right now, and even more so given all the risk/protectionist policies/boneheaded and unpredictable policy/geopolitical risk, etc. I might miss some more upside, but it seems like the downside risk is much higher.

I'm trying to stay in a sort of holding pattern with trainloads of dry powder, but not take an excessive hit on performance. I'm moving some money market stuff into slightly higher performing funds like JPST, but I'm thinking about spicing a portion of it up somewhat more with STRC.

8/13/2025 11:12:46 PM

This market doesn't care if you "fire" a member of the Federal Reserve.

She might have been shady, but you just can never tell with confidence what the market reaction will be to unprecedented events.

8/26/2025 10:28:08 AM

https://www.financialexpress.com/business/investing-abroad-us-stock-market-valuations-hit-record-highs-is-there-a-bubble-in-the-market-3957809/

Between these valuations, meddling in business affairs, literally taking government ownership of companies and wanting to do more, enacting a half-trillion dollar tax increase in the form of trade-disruptive tariffs, trying to meddle with the Fed, etc...I keep on paring my equity holdings more and more in favor of more defensive positioning. I'm becoming OK with sitting here collecting 6% or whatever in yield without much risk (I hope).

8/26/2025 9:55:49 PM

Not to completely ignore signals, but stocks are always in a bubble of some sort or another. But who can really consistently say with confidence and ahead of time specifically when the bubble bursts? There's a lot of money to be lost in the meantime if you position too defensively.

8/27/2025 3:08:21 AM

^I know it’s true, but it just looks so dumb out there. I almost feel an obligation not to buy, so the market can return to reality?

I’ve been doing just a little reading on stagflation in the 70s. Not to say we are headed directly there, but there are some similarities. There was money to be made in some of the 70s bear markets, but good god it must have been a minefield:


People doing real analysis and picking valuable companies and trading often could do well. I think for normies like me it’ll be tough.

8/27/2025 6:33:39 AM

Oh, for sure it's dumb out here.

8/27/2025 6:15:04 PM

just follow those in the know

https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Nancy%20Pelosi-P000197

8/27/2025 6:44:14 PM

Gold Silver Bitcoin


is the October slump coming ?????????? or Crash????

how about all these AI and Chip companies circle jerking each other is the bubble here?

10/8/2025 9:25:41 AM

Nobody knows, but one thing not to do is load up on speculative assets without intrinsic value at the peak of their bubbles. Good luck to the bag holders. Don't kill yourselves.

10/8/2025 7:05:07 PM

let's say I've got a good chunk of those chip manufacturers already
either because I bought them 20+ years ago
or because I loaded up when it was cheap (looking at you, Intel)

sell it now or hold on to it?

10/8/2025 11:49:19 PM

A helpful mental trick is to ask yourself whether you would buy more of the same asset right now with an infusion of new money. If you wouldn't, then you should strongly consider selling. Tax impacts may complicate that slightly. Coming up with an asset allocation that you can reliably maintain through all investing climates is a real de-stressor. True diamond hands!

10/9/2025 5:24:11 AM

I have to go all the way back to a 3-month graph to see green. Glad I'm not a day trader.

11/6/2025 6:24:07 PM

I tend to keep my views on 2-year.

11/6/2025 7:29:10 PM

Logic here seems fairly sound based on the past https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/is-there-an-ai-bubble

11/7/2025 8:36:41 AM

Were you able to read beyond the part where he says he doesn't think it's a bubble? Because everything before that kind of supports various bubble theories. Then he says he doesn't think it is, and BAM -- paywalled!

But in any case what is to be done about it? Sit out the market gains for what could be years until the pop?

11/9/2025 3:46:14 PM

yeah it's unfortunate that sometimes you have to pay for insight

the basic point after the paywall is AI markets may look inflated, but fundamentals—real value, rapid revenue growth, and transformative potential—make a major crash unlikely in the near term.

11/10/2025 1:52:29 PM

where else is capital gonna go these days anyways (other than paying down the national debt a few percent or jumpstarting UBI). M7 is sitting on half a trillion bucks with no idea what to do with it for the last decade, let alone institutional investors and various sovereign wealth funds wanting in on the action. might as well put the chips on the bet of the century. hard to imagine we could ever over-extend ourselves on building out compute and the requisite power capacity anyways. Amazon went how long without being profitable? and in the end we got global-scale e-commerce AND profits. We can do the same thing with AI, no need to rush into profitability demands. We can relatively comfortably keep putting money into AI until we beat China, benchmaxxing stalls out or God ends up popping out of one of these things, whatever happens first.

[Edited on November 10, 2025 at 2:07 PM. Reason : not that I want any vc funding for my nonsense anyways. bootstrapped ftw]

11/10/2025 2:05:02 PM

^^I don't find it particularly unfortunate. I was just looking for confirmation about whether you had in fact read the full article. Because it was kind of a long preview to have and then disclose his conclusion and then hit the paywall at the end.

11/10/2025 4:30:39 PM

The Big Short is Dead?

11/13/2025 9:55:09 AM

maybe not

11/13/2025 3:28:23 PM