This is obviously more than off year swings. There was record turnout, Virginia state legislator got dominated by democrats, and even local races in Georgia and Florida were won by democrats.

Positive media coverage can build the idea of momentum regardless of what’s in people’s hearts

11/5/2025 12:44:25 AM

Fair

I'm just trying to temper expectations. I'd hate for you to be super disappointed and wonder wtf went wrong next year.

11/5/2025 12:50:15 AM

^if Dems don't make heavy gains during midterm, it will be wildly disappointing regardless of yesterday

Quote :

"Trump just shutting up for a month or 2 before midterms "

Chances of that happening approach 0, he is incapable

11/5/2025 6:57:06 AM

I just wanted to clarify real quick that we are just happy Democrats won last night right? Like the candidates in Virginia arent actually good but "yay democrats" anyway.

11/5/2025 8:42:06 AM

I am always happy even a Manchin type wins if it's vs even a replacement level republican, much less the maga types. And the turnout and swings from 12 months ago were inspiring and make me a tad hopeful

11/5/2025 8:54:24 AM

Quote :

"Relax man being called an alias is not that serious. I think tgl is wrong but just ignore it."

Quote :

"I don't expect an apology. I don't expect him to ever admit he was wrong. I just want him to know he's a total piece of shit and that other people think so, too."

mission accomplished let's move on shall we

Quote :

"I feel like you have to ignore last November and 4 years ago to not feel excited by these results."

hey i'm not complaining about keeping republicans out of office, i'm just not convinced it's a sign that dems have done anything particularly right in these cases to earn the wins in a way that gives us anything at a national scale to learn from for future elections.

Quote :

"I just wanted to clarify real quick that we are just happy Democrats won last night right? Like the candidates in Virginia arent actually good but "yay democrats" anyway."

pretty much

Quote :

""CONFIRMED: Georgia Democrats have won their first statewide elections for non-federal offices since *2006.*"

statewide victory in the south, eh? that's cool even if it's just a utility commission race

Quote :

"Two ballot measures to fund Colorado’s universal school meals program, the only statewide contests in the 2025 off-year election, were approved by voters Tuesday night, according to unofficial results."

love this. i'm all about universal, relatively low cost, common sense programs that directly benefit kids.

Quote :

"I prefer another post in defense of this:"

hey don't get me wrong i'm happy to see so many dem victories (except mamdani although zero of the options in that race were Good so fuck it let the DSA get their shot and we'll see how much damage they cause) i'm just saying the dems shouldn't act like they've got everything figured out now and they can just coast till 2028 on more and more anti-trump rhetoric.

Quote :

"It’s partially r/enlightenedcentrist cope"

"enlightenedcentrist cope" this kind of framing/rhetoric only exists to short circuit critical thinking and to give people permission to dismiss other points of view. don't do that to yourself.

and i'm a (left-leaning) moderate, not a centrist. in the Philippians 4:5 and 1 Corinthians 6:12 sense i mean. i will accept the accusation of being enlightened though

Quote :

"there’s truth that this momentum is coming from people hating trump rather than agreeing with democrats"

again i'm not sure the lesson from these wins is "people hate trump" i think y'all WANT that to be true so much so that you end up putting way way too much on trump as a factor.

Quote :

"If democrats don’t take this opportunity to make people actually like their viewpoints"

this is the key point. stop talking about trump and how evil republicans are all the god damn time and start talking about what can Dems do to EARN the support of voters.

[Edited on November 5, 2025 at 9:01 AM. Reason : .]

11/5/2025 8:59:34 AM

Don't understand how you post this:

Quote :

"this is the key point. stop talking about trump and how evil republicans are all the god damn time and start talking about what can Dems do to EARN the support of voters."

And also say this in the very same post:

Quote :

"hey don't get me wrong i'm happy to see so many dem victories (except mamdani although zero of the options in that race were Good so fuck it let the DSA get their shot and we'll see how much damage they cause)"

Mamdani is LITERALLY focused on the important things, trying to make NYC more affordable for people who work and live in the city and then you shit all over him for doing exactly what other Democrats should be doing. His message obviously resounded with so many New Yorkers that they had the highest turn out in a half century. But sure, shit all over him, because he's Muslim? Or Socialist? I'm guessing the real reason you don't like Zohran is because he doesn't support the genocide in Palestine. Oh I'm sorry "He's brainwashed by the Chinese/Russians. Look at all these YouTube videos I posted from Zionist apologia."

11/5/2025 9:51:26 AM

The turnout may have been just pushback against Trump and pushback against the shutdown.

I'm not too concerned about Mamdani. He's either going to succeed for fail spectacularly. If he succeeds, who knows, he may usher in a completely new political movement across America. If he fails? Eh it's just NY, who cares right?

He's shiny, he's new, it is something different. Our ADHD brains like that.

VA didn't have shit to vote for really. Sears ran on one topic and one topic alone, and it wasn't enough. Her campaign was horrible.

I do think the midterms are going to go full-on Democrat because nobody - and I mean nobody - wants Trump for a third term.

11/5/2025 10:51:23 AM

https://www.mississippifreepress.org/mississippi-democrats-break-republican-senate-supermajority-flipping-3-legislative-seats/

11/5/2025 11:40:24 AM

Quote :

" Young women are the story of tonight. 81% for Mamdani in NYC 80% for Sherrill in NJ 78% for Spanberger in VA per NBC's exit polls."

Dems also won young men but not by as big margins. Huge swings vs the Presidential though.

The K shaped economic trends are going to be more important to deal with to keep the youth— they’re the most affected.

[Edited on November 5, 2025 at 12:09 PM. Reason : ]

11/5/2025 12:07:25 PM

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/opinion/trump-mamdani-spanberger-sherrill-democrats.html?unlocked_article_code=1.y08.qvGC.IX75_atNA__c&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Quote :

" Make No Mistake: Trump Is an Albatross"

11/5/2025 12:15:18 PM

Quote :

"Nighthawk: I'm guessing the real reason you don't like Zohran is because he doesn't support the genocide in Palestine. Oh I'm sorry "He's brainwashed by the Chinese/Russians. Look at all these YouTube videos I posted from Zionist apologia.""

Gold medal for you, bro!

11/5/2025 12:16:12 PM

Quote :

"Don't understand how you post this: And also say this in the very same post:"

acknowledging you don't understand is important. kudos. this is easy to clear up. you have hit on an important point though

when trump won in 2016, it was in large part because he spoke to issues that (republican) voters care about that other candidates (jeb, rubio, cruz, etc) ignored or were seen as only paying lip service to. people felt heard for the first time in a long time and saw in trump somebody who wasn't a phoney career politician who was more interested in playing social elite power games than actually getting anything done for the people

doesn't mean that trump's solutions were any good, or that trump wasn't just as self-serving and manipulative as the career politicians, but they were willing to take a chance on trump bc he at least seemed authentic and were sick of what the establishment types were offering. and if he couldn't deliver on the quality of life improvements they wanted, trump would at least deliver some measure of retribution to those they blamed for their suffering.

maga and progressivism are both just populist ideological garbage

when mamdani won in 2025, it was in large part because he spoke to issues that (democrat) voters care about that other candidates (cuomo, lander, adams, etc) ignored or were seen as only paying lip service to. people felt heard for the first time in a long time and saw in mamdani somebody who wasn't a phoney career politician who was more interested in playing social elite power games than actually getting anything done for the people

doesn't mean that mamdani's solutions were any good, or that mamdani wasn't just as self-serving and manipulative as the career politicians, but they were willing to take a chance on mamdani bc he at least seemed authentic and were sick of what the establishment types were offering. and if he couldn't deliver on the quality of life improvements they wanted, mamdani would at least deliver some measure of retribution to those they blamed for their suffering.

Quote :

"Mamdani is LITERALLY focused on the important things, trying to make NYC more affordable for people who work and live in the city"

focusing on making NYC more affordable is great! and I agree other Dems should focus their efforts on these sorts of kitchen table issues

Quote :

"and then you shit all over him for doing exactly what other Democrats should be doing."

identifying the problem and coming up with a good solution are 2 different things. as we have seen with trump, it's not good enough to just get the problem right. the solution matters too. I don't think DSA types like Mamdani are going to move the needle in the right direction for New Yorkers and will almost certainly make things worse. maybe I'll be wrong and I'll be glad to have the opportunity to learn something new and add to my mental model of how civilization works if it turns out I am wrong. but I'm not getting my hopes up.

so this is why i think it's unfortunate that mamdani won, bc I think his social and economic ideological foundations are flawed. populism rarely achieves anything history looks back on as positive, and usually just ends up being an outlet for resentment and grievance. fortunately NYC is bigger than any mayor and for the most part will probably follow the same trajectory between now and the next election no matter who won.

Quote :

"because he's Muslim? Or Socialist?"

lol has nothing to do with him being muslim. gtfo with that bullshit accusation. he can believe in whatever gods he wants but just like i tell the christian politicians, keep your theology out of my governance.

Quote :

"His message obviously resounded with so many New Yorkers that they had the highest turn out in a half century."

49.6% of that record turnout were people who showed up specifically to vote for somebody other than Mamdani.

and let's talk about the "New Yorkers" who voted for him



for somebody whose entire political reason d'etre is for a cause that justifies 100 years of violence bc "a bunch of rich socialists from far away immigrated to our lands and imposed their foreign political ideas on us" it kinda seems like Mamdani and his supporters are a bunch of rich socialists from far away who are imposing their political ideas on the native population.

Quote :

"the real reason you don't like Zohran is because he doesn't support the genocide in Palestine."

as I've said, I don't like Zohran primarily because he's a DSA type. the fact that he's also wrong when it comes to Israel just comes with the territory.

Quote :

"Look at all these YouTube videos I posted from Zionist apologia."

blah blah blah. roll your eyes some more and keep not understanding if that's what you want. or you could actually engage with the substance of the topics, add something new to your mental model of how civilization works, and try to make yourself and the world a better place.

[Edited on November 5, 2025 at 3:54 PM. Reason : crazycode is hard]

11/5/2025 3:48:59 PM

You do realize how arrogant you sound sometimes, right?

11/5/2025 4:37:58 PM

Mamdanis rhetoric is populist but his solutions are technocratic. He’s basically following what sociological and economic research suggests is best.

He’s probably not aggressive enough given the scale of the problems New York and everywhere else is facing

And given the trajectory of AI we’re looking at 2-3 years when a huge chunk of labor can be done by robots and AI. I don’t think anything can stop companies from capitalizing on these efficiencies but we need to be more serious about explicit redistribution in the economy. The writing has been on the wall since word2vec but we’re now actually seeing this all reach public releases.

11/5/2025 5:24:33 PM

^^

Quote :

"maybe I'll be wrong"

Quote :

"And given the trajectory of AI we’re looking at 2-3 years when a huge chunk of labor can be done by robots and AI. I don’t think anything can stop companies from capitalizing on these efficiencies but we need to be more serious about explicit redistribution in the economy (IT'S UBI WE NEED NOT SOCIALISM). The writing has been on the wall since word2vec but we’re now actually seeing this all reach public releases."

100% agree about K-shaped economy and the impact of AI and technology more broadly. that's what i've been screaming for years now.

Quote :

"his solutions are technocratic. He’s basically following what sociological and economic research suggests is best."

would you mind elaborating on this?

[Edited on November 5, 2025 at 5:30 PM. Reason : find me candidates with reasonable rhetoric & reasonable solutions. until then i'll keep complaining]

11/5/2025 5:24:40 PM

Quote :

"again i'm not sure the lesson from these wins is "people hate trump" i think y'all WANT that to be true so much so that you end up putting way way too much on trump as a factor. Quote : "If democrats don’t take this opportunity to make people actually like their viewpoints" this is the key point. stop talking about trump and how evil republicans are all the god damn time and start talking about what can Dems do to EARN the support of voters. "

Seems it has to be one or the other, either people hate Trump or Dems earned the support of voters. I'm happy with either conclusion. People hate Trump? Great! Dems have earned voters support? Even better!

Quote :

"maga and progressivism are both just populist ideological garbage "

Whereas forward and yang and Dean phillips are just regular ideological garbage bc none of their platforms are popular enough to be accused of populism?

[Edited on November 5, 2025 at 7:42 PM. Reason : E]

11/5/2025 7:25:48 PM

Quote :

"Has he EVER admitted to being wrong about anything?"

11/5/2025 7:44:25 PM

The the extent socialism has any actual definition in colloquial language, UBI is socialism. It’s practically the end goal of socialism

11/5/2025 8:19:13 PM

Quote :

"Whereas forward and yang and Dean phillips are just regular ideological garbage bc none of their platforms are popular enough to be accused of populism?"

11/6/2025 10:25:44 AM

Quote :

"Seems it has to be one or the other, either people hate Trump or Dems earned the support of voters"

what?? even if we simplify the reasons people vote for governor or utility commission to whether they like or hate trump vs whether they like or hate the dem party, there's still 4 quadrants to consider, not just two (your "one or the other")

like trump, like dems (this mostly doesn't exist so we can ignore it)
don't like trump, like dems (reliable partisan voter)
like trump, don't like dems (reliable partisan voter)
don't like trump, don't like dems

it's the last one i'm talking about. many of them just won't bother to vote, but the ones who do make or break elections when the reliable partisan voter bloc is more or less equally fixed on both sides. and there are those who do end up voting for dems bc they dislike trump even more (think a theDuke type vote) but that doesn't mean the dems EARNED his vote. and since dems have a hard time EARNING votes, they rely on cranking up the anti-trump rhetoric hoping to make people vote for dems (even though dems didn't actually earn their vote) BECAUSE they're so anti-trump. that might move the needle enough to win some tight races, but long term it's destructive and i'd say you get more ROI by focusing on earning votes instead of tearing down the opposition.

Quote :

"Whereas forward and yang and Dean phillips are just regular ideological garbage bc none of their platforms are popular enough to be accused of populism?"

let's do the quadrants thing again. popularity of candidates due to their ideological populism vs popularity of candidates due to idk nonpartisan pragmatism

we have
popular right ideological populism (trump)
popular left ideological populism (bernie, aoc, mamdani)
popular right nonpartisan pragmatism (idk bush?)
popular left nonpartisan pragmatism (obama, biden)
unpopular right ideological populism (idk rand paul?)
unpopular left ideological populism (idk marianne williamson?)
unpopular right nonpartisan pragmatism (jon huntsman?)
unpopular left nonpartisan pragmatism (yang, dean)

now add the garbage dimension
garbage - trump, bernie, aoc, mamdani, bush
not garbage - yang, huntsman, obama

idk, you get where i'm going with this?? ideologues are too rigid and usually simplify the world too much. the world is complicated you need a high dimensionality to get the math right on decision making. they might be hitting on some reasonable points, but don't swallow their worldview whole. integrate the good bits into the rest of your world model. it's almost always bad (the garbage dimension) when ideologues get popular (populism).

on the non-ideological side we still have garbage we need to try to avoid (the incompetents and the corrupts). if we can do that we're left with whether non-garbage, non-ideological candidates can be popular enough to get elected. so if yang can't get elected bc he doesn't have name recognition or he's not charismatic enough, so be it. if dean can't get elected bc the biden world is incompetent and corrupt enough to try to run for a second term and steamroll any chance of an actually competitive primary, so be it.

but i'm gonna keep aiming for the competent, principled, pragmatic, non-ideological candidates and hope they have what it takes to rise to the top of the popularity dimension.

Quote :

"The the extent socialism has any actual definition in colloquial language, UBI is socialism. It’s practically the end goal of socialism"

disagree. but you're right about socialism not having a clear definition (what's that famous truman quote) and that being a big part of the problem in our politics.

for me, socialism is the "seizing the means of production" thing. that's what i have an objection to.

the economy and society is an ecosystem. healthy ecosystems need diversity. free markets are the best way we have to naturally provide that diversity. survival of the fittest works. it's a genetic algorithm for civilization. i don't want to foster an expectation among the populace that government should have a monopoly on any segment of our economy or society. there are a few reasonable exceptions but in general the more the government calls the shots, the more inefficiency, corruption and authoritarianism can creep in.

UBI is capitalism that doesn't start at zero. it's fertilizer for our civilizational ecosystem. it's steering the incentives of our economy toward higher growth and prosperity.

somewhere between these 3 distributions of fertilizer is a winning society. that's what i want UBI to find.







[Edited on November 6, 2025 at 10:45 AM. Reason : ^ yeah yeah. i felt the dunk land right on my arrogant little head ]

11/6/2025 10:44:49 AM

here’s a thread about MLK Jr. supporting Democratic Socialism

https://bsky.app/profile/jackjenkins.me/post/3lsljyitdlc2v

11/6/2025 11:28:17 AM

For the first point I think I was unclear bc I think my pt and your quadrant agree. I agree that some folks that vote Dem BOTH like trump AND support dems, obviously. But to get Dems vote, they almost definitely have a yes for one of those categories. Of course there are some cases where they just don't like the specific GOP candidate but the GOP is so tied with Trump today that those are related. You appeared to be sayings "dems didn't win bc people hate Trump" AND ALSO "Dems didn't earn voters support". If neither of those is true, why did Dems win?


As for my dunk, I don't truly have much of a negative opinion on Yang et al, just more dunking that you always seem to be preaching against buzzwords and in this post you preach against oversimplification, yet the whole post is using buzzwords and oversimplification to dismiss political ideologies you don't like. And speaking of ideology, isn't UBI an ideology that was a major part of Yang's campaign? "just give people money" sounds like it's a populist, simplified solution, just happens to be one you do like where, say, MFA is a populist, simplified solution that you (I think) consider garbage.

Not sure why pushing UBI is pragmatic and pushing MFA is ideologue other than pure personal opinion.

[Edited on November 6, 2025 at 11:36 AM. Reason : E]

11/6/2025 11:34:03 AM

yeah and Einstein wrote about socialism too. great. it's completely legitimate to critically inspect the strengths and weaknesses of capitalism as an economic system (eg private capital tends to become overly concentrated in few hands), and completely legitimate to identify when specific individual participants within capitalist societies become exploitative.

but the impulse to toss all of capitalism in the trash and replace it with global revolutionary worker class consciousness is stupid and childish.

11/6/2025 11:38:06 AM

Quote :

"isn't UBI an ideology that was a major part of Yang's campaign? "just give people money" sounds like it's a populist, simplified solution"

UBI isn't an ideology. it's a specific policy prescription designed to accomplish specific goals. and the best policies ARE simple (the more bureaucracy required for a policy, the less effective it becomes) and popular (bc they're universal and apply to all citizens they foster SHARED values). that doesn't necessarily make them simplistic or populist though. like free speech. or free/cheap access to roads and interstate highways. or free/cheap public schools. or free/cheap meals at public schools. or yes MFA as a policy designed to create a national risk pool for health insurance so that we can decouple health insurance from employment and eliminate adverse selection. all straightforward enough for citizens to understand the value of the policies and how they're supposed to work so they can participate.

Quote :

"MFA is a populist, simplified solution that you (I think) consider garbage"

i'm not opposed to MFA or a system like it. i do think some of the progressives in the 2020 race became too rigid in their support of MFA and MFA-supporting candidates and did the thing when other people said "we agree that there are problems with healthcare in the US but maybe there are some reasonable ways to tackle it we should explore other than HR 1384 and only HR 1384"

[Edited on November 6, 2025 at 12:48 PM. Reason : .]

11/6/2025 12:40:02 PM